Heading into the fall and winter, there are clear signs of a third resurgence bearing a close resemblance to what we saw in early June. Since the most recent nadir on Sept. 9, when the national rate was at 34,300 cases a day—still a notch above the April peak—cases have risen to 45,300 a day, a 32% increase. The numbers paint an alarmingly familiar picture that spells trouble ahead—despite President Donald Trump’s repeated but false assertions that the country is “rounding the final turn” on the pandemic.